Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 54 yards to ATL 6, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 18 for 12 yards (46-N.Moore). PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at ATL 6.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.53 EP
61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model