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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to MIN 19, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.14 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model