Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(2:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to TB 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 25 for 16 yards (45-M.Bredeson).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.30 EP
63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model