4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 2-I.Rodgers at MIN 3. 2-I.Rodgers to MIN 3 for no gain (17-T.Hurst).

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.19 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -0.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model