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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 25

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(:37) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +1.43 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model