Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 61

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 1-K.Gainwell INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel [51-B.Cashman] at TB 41. 43-A.Van Ginkel to TB 41 for no gain (1-K.Gainwell). TB-6-B.Mayfield was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.79 EP
71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -2.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.48 EP