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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 38

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 16-W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.07 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model