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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Minnesota Vikings
4th & 1 at the 35
Minnesota Vikings 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16
What Actually Happened
(6:08) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to TB 32 for 3 yards (22-K.Scott).
The Three Options
GO
+1.96 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
KICK
+0.66 EP
- 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
- 30% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT
-0.20 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
