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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.06 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model