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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.08 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model