4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to MIN 25, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price to MIN 25 for no gain (19-K.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.13 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model