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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to TB 24, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-T.Johnson to TB 34 for 10 yards (41-J.Golday; 29-Jac.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.84 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model