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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.20 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 20, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model