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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 36

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.11 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model