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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to MIN 15, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIN 25 for 10 yards (29-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.55 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -1.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model