Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

(1:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to TB 23, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.91 EP
50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model