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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model