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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 54

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 54, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model