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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 83

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to TB 40, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.66 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 41, worth -2.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model