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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 68

Denver Broncos 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to LV 31, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model