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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2023-09-10 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

LV
55.9%
DEN
44.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LV: Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.144 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (LV) +0.194 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • DEN defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 22
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: LV by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

LV

Brandon Facyson CB Out Shin
Chandler Jones DE Out Not injury related - personal matter
DeAndre Carter WR Questionable Knee

DEN

Jerry Jeudy WR Questionable Hamstring
Riley Moss CB Questionable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 17
–
DEN 16

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:32 TD LV (9:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-16-J.Meyers, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. LV 6 – DEN 0
  • Q1 00:50 TD DEN (:50) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 17-L.Humphrey for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 7 – DEN 6
  • Q2 10:57 FG LV (10:57) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – DEN 6
  • Q2 00:18 TD DEN (:18) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – DEN 12
  • Q4 08:57 FG DEN (8:57) 16-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. LV 10 – DEN 16
  • Q4 06:38 TD LV (6:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 16-J.Meyers for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 16 – DEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 66%

    (12:54) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 17-D.Adams to DEN 22 for 13 yards (22-K.Jackson).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (10:57) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:38) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to DEN 25, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 61%

    (9:36) 16-W.Lutz 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (8:57) 16-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (5:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to LV 31, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.