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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 70

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to IND 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 30 for 9 yards (53-B.Cashman; 1-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model