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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 56

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(:19) 6-M.Haack punts 37 yards to HOU 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.57 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 56, worth -0.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model