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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 62

Houston Texans 20 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to IND 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 20 for 7 yards (53-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.10 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model