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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 6-M.Haack punts 70 yards to HOU 1, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-41-G.Stuard.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.13 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model