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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 25

Houston Texans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 7-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.54 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP