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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:45) 6-M.Haack punts 28 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.02 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP