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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 6-M.Haack punts 44 yards to HOU 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP