Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 75

Detroit Lions 7 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to SEA 18, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-F.Swain ran ob at SEA 48 for 30 yards (52-J.Lemonier). PENALTY on SEA-48-E.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model