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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2022-01-02 · 16:25 Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌨 Snow Spread 8.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

DET
33.1%
SEA
66.9%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: -0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Russell Wilson (SEA) -0.003 vs Tim Boyle (DET) -0.197 EPA/dropback
  • DET defense: +0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 20
–
SEA 25
Projected margin: SEA by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

DET

Rashod Berry LB Out Illness
Jason Cabinda FB Out Knee
Jared Goff QB Doubtful Knee
Curtis Bolton LB Questionable Back

SEA

Jon Rhattigan LB Out Knee
Brandon Shell T Doubtful Shoulder
Alex Collins RB Questionable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 29
–
SEA 51

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 35 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:51 TD SEA (5:51) 20-R.Penny up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 01:05 FG SEA (1:05) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. DET 0 – SEA 10
  • Q2 14:11 TD SEA (14:11) 20-R.Penny up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – SEA 16
  • Q2 11:16 TD DET (11:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.St. Brown up the middle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – SEA 17
  • Q2 06:03 TD SEA (6:03) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [31-D.Marlowe]. DET 7 – SEA 23
  • Q2 00:25 TD SEA (:25) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 16-T.Lockett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – SEA 30
  • Q3 14:18 TD SEA (14:18) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – SEA 37
  • Q3 10:18 TD DET (10:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – SEA 38
  • Q3 04:55 TD DET (4:55) 65-P.Ehinger and 68-T.Decker reported in as eligible. 12-T.Boyle pass short left to 68-T.Decker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 21 – SEA 38
  • Q4 12:42 TD SEA (12:42) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 22 – SEA 44
  • Q4 07:08 TD DET (7:08) 65-P.Ehinger and 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 30-J.Williams right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 28 – SEA 45
  • Q4 05:33 FG SEA (5:33) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. DET 29 – SEA 48
  • Q4 04:38 FG SEA (4:38) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. DET 29 – SEA 51

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to DET 30, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 14-A.St. Brown.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 82%

    (9:44) (Shotgun) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 30-J.Williams up the middle to SEA 29 for no gain (52-D.Taylor, 90-B.Mone). Detroit challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q1 DET 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:18) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to SEA 23, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-F.Swain to SEA 26 for 3 yards (27-B.Price).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 14 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 75%

    (1:05) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:56) 3-J.Fox punts 37 yards to SEA 36, Center-47-S.Daly, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (7:39) (No Huddle) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to DET 15 for 2 yards (38-C.Moore).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:46) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to SEA 18, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-F.Swain ran ob at SEA 48 for 30 yards (52-J.Lemonier). PENALTY on SEA-48-E.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 20.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 61%

    (6:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to SEA 8 for 31 yards (2-D.Reed).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 93%

    (5:33) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 12 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 88%

    (4:38) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.