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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Detroit Lions
4th & 10 at the 52
Detroit Lions 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7
What Actually Happened
(:27) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-1.08 EP
-
33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
- 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 52, worth -3.03 EP
KICK
-2.01 EP
- 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
- 80% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT
-0.72 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
