Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 55

Detroit Lions 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

(:31) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to PIT 12, Center-47-S.Daly. 14-R.McCloud pushed ob at PIT 22 for 10 yards (38-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.94 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -0.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model