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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.54 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -1.60 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP