Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 87

Detroit Lions 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

(15:00) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to PIT 45, Center-47-S.Daly. 14-R.McCloud to 50 for 5 yards (51-J.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.90 EP
69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 87, worth -5.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model