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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 59

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to DET 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 18 for 5 yards (31-J.Layne).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.35 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model