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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 39

Detroit Lions 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP