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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 2

Detroit Lions 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:02) 5-R.Santoso 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +3.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.96 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP