4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to KC 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.47 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 19, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP