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Kansas City Chiefs

1-1 HC Andy Reid
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Baltimore Ravens

1-1 HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2021-09-19 · 20:20 ET M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

KC
70.8%
BAL
29.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.329 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.497 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • KC defense: +0.244 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

KC 27 20–34
–
BAL 24 17–31
Projected margin: KC by 3 Projected total: 51

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

KC

No players on the report.

BAL

Derek Wolfe DE Out Back
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Ankle
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Ankle
Devin Duvernay WR Questionable Groin
Daelin Hayes LB Questionable Knee
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Back
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 35
–
BAL 36

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:19 TD KC (14:19) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 14-S.Watkins INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at BAL 34. 32-T.Mathieu for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – BAL 0
  • Q1 10:42 TD BAL (10:42) (Shotgun) 34-T.Williams left end to KC 1 for 9 yards (21-M.Hughes; 49-D.Sorensen). FUMBLES (21-M.Hughes), recovered by BAL-13-D.Duvernay at KC 2. 13-D.Duvernay for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – BAL 6
  • Q1 06:12 TD KC (6:12) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 11-D.Robinson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – BAL 7
  • Q2 03:26 TD BAL (3:26) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – BAL 13
  • Q2 00:54 TD KC (:54) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Williams right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – BAL 14
  • Q2 00:07 FG BAL (:07) 9-J.Tucker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. KC 21 – BAL 17
  • Q3 12:01 TD KC (12:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 13-B.Pringle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – BAL 17
  • Q3 09:39 TD BAL (9:39) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 5-M.Brown for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 28 – BAL 23
  • Q3 07:07 TD KC (7:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 34 – BAL 24
  • Q4 14:21 TD BAL (14:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 35 – BAL 30
  • Q4 03:18 TD BAL (3:18) (Shotgun) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 35 – BAL 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (12:12) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to KC 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:03) 5-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to BAL 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 28 for 16 yards (23-A.Watts).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:23) 5-T.Townsend punts 32 yards to BAL 32, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (1:05) (Shotgun) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson up the middle to BAL 45 for 2 yards (53-A.Hitchens).

    See the full breakdown →