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Sunday 2026-12-27 · 13:00 ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US
🏟 Dome
Win Probability
Dome
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- Baker Mayfield (TB): -0.119 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- ATL offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
TB
22
15–29
–
ATL
23
16–30
Projected margin: ATL by 1
Projected total: 45
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 16
TB
No players on the report.
ATL
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Not played yet.
