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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2026-12-27 · 16:25 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ❓ Unknown

Win Probability

SF
43.2%
KC
56.8%
Unknown

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • SF on 4 more days rest than KC
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.155 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.177 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SF 24
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.

Actual Result

Not played yet.