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Sunday 2026-12-27 · 20:20 ET
AT&T Stadium, Arlington US
🏟 Dome
Win Probability
Dome
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- DAL defense: +0.179 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- JAX offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- DAL offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- QB edge to JAX: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.165 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.289 EPA/dropback
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
JAX
27
20–34
–
DAL
23
16–30
Projected margin: JAX by 4
Projected total: 50
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 16
JAX
No players on the report.
DAL
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Not played yet.
