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New England Patriots

4-2 HC Mike Vrabel
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

3-2 HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2026-11-15 · 09:30 ET FC Bayern Munich Stadium, Munich DE 🏟 Dome

Win Probability

NE
53.9%
DET
46.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Jared Goff (DET): +0.224 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NE crossing 6 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

NE 27 20–34
–
DET 24 17–31
Projected margin: NE by 3 Projected total: 51

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 10

NE

No players on the report.

DET

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

Not played yet.