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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 41

New Orleans Saints 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(13:01) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 12-C.Olave to MIN 36 for 5 yards (51-B.Cashman).

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +4.01 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.78 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth +0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model