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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 54

Minnesota Vikings 23 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 19-B.Thorson punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.95 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 54, worth -2.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP