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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 13 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(5:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to MIN 38 for 6 yards (7-B.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.19 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model