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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 85

New Orleans Saints 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to MIN 31, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.12 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 85, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 43, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model