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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 51

Minnesota Vikings 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 19-B.Thorson punts 38 yards to NO 13, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.23 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 51, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model