Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3

(4:57) 17-R.Wright punts 64 yards to MIN 10, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 4-M.Price pushed ob at NO 47 for 43 yards (31-J.Howden).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.84 EP
54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 74, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model