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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 19-B.Thorson punts 39 yards to NO 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.80 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 60, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 19, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP